Bitcoin staged a sharp afternoon breakout Thursday, climbing from below $77,000 to nearly $81,400, its highest intraday level since May 15. The move came as broader risk markets rallied following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that reduced expectations for a September rate increase.
Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if incoming inflation data confirm that price pressures are continuing to ease. Markets reacted immediately: the implied probability of a September hike fell to about 50% from more than 63% Wednesday, while Treasury yields retreated from multi-year highs.
Crypto responded aggressively. Bitcoin surged more than 6% from its overnight lows, while Ether, XRP, Solana and other large-cap tokens moved higher. The broader crypto market capitalization reached approximately $2.82 trillion during the rally.
The move also spilled into crypto-linked equities. Strategy gained approximately 17.6%, Coinbase rose 10.1% and Robinhood jumped 16.6% as investors moved back into higher-beta financial assets.
This is a major shift from the morning setup. Earlier Thursday, Bitcoin was defending the $76,350 active-investor cost basis while Treasury yields and Fed expectations remained significant headwinds. The afternoon move did not simply bounce from support—it reclaimed the psychologically important $80,000 area.
The rally, however, is still macro-dependent. Friday’s U.S. employment report remains the next critical catalyst. Reuters reported economists expect approximately 56,000 jobs added in August with unemployment holding near 4.1%. A stronger reading could revive rate-hike expectations; weaker data could reinforce Thursday’s move.
Bitcoin also remains below its longer-term cycle highs, and Thursday’s breakout occurred during a powerful cross-asset risk rally. That makes follow-through important. A durable crypto move should eventually show confirmation from ETF flows, stablecoin liquidity, spot volumes and declining exchange deposits rather than relying entirely on changing Fed expectations.
TOKEN RECON ASSESSMENT
Bitcoin successfully converted the $76K defensive line into an offensive move above $80K.
The immediate intelligence question is whether $80,000 now becomes support. Holding above that area after Friday’s jobs report would materially strengthen the breakout case. A rapid rejection back below $78,000 would suggest Thursday was primarily a macro short squeeze.
Watch: $80K support, Friday payrolls, Treasury yields, Fed hike odds, Bitcoin ETF flows and spot volume.
