Intelligence Brief
Gemini generated $45.5 million in second-quarter revenue but recorded a $107.7 million net loss.
Revenue increased 37% from the same quarter of 2025. The improvement came from services outside Gemini’s core exchange business. Exchange revenue fell 38% to $12.5 million as trading volume declined from $11.3 billion to $3.8 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $74 million, compared with negative $51.9 million a year earlier. Total operating expenses reached $122.4 million.
Transaction losses rose to $20.1 million. Gemini attributed $16.1 million to a provision connected to credit-card identity fraud involving accounts originated during the first quarter.
Credit-card revenue increased to $16.2 million, while activity in Gemini’s prediction-market business expanded from the previous quarter. Assets held on the platform fell to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion a year earlier. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $188.6 million.
Strategic Assessment
Gemini is reducing its dependence on spot trading, but diversification has not produced operating stability.
Credit cards, prediction markets and other services give the company revenue sources that do not track exchange volume directly. Those businesses also introduce different risks. The credit-card provision shows how rapid expansion can exchange trading volatility for fraud and credit losses.
Customers benefit from a wider product range. Gemini gains more opportunities to monetise each account. Shareholders carry the cost while expenses and transaction losses remain far above current revenue.
The central question is whether the new businesses can grow without requiring similar increases in risk provisions, marketing and compliance spending. Falling assets on platform also weaken Gemini’s ability to generate custody, trading and service income from its existing user base.
A recovery in crypto volume could improve exchange economics. It would not resolve the cost structure by itself.
