Altcoin Intel
XRP continues to trade above $1.13, holding its recent recovery despite signs that institutional demand may be losing momentum.
On the technical side, the asset is forming a cup-and-handle pattern, with the current pullback shaping the handle portion of the structure. Trading volume has declined during the consolidation, suggesting sellers have become less aggressive as buyers defend higher levels.
However, market positioning outside the chart tells a different story.
Monthly inflows into spot XRP ETFs have slowed sharply, falling from $131.94 million in May to $59.46 million in June. July has brought just $12.43 million in new inflows so far, marking the weakest monthly total since the products launched.
Market Context
On-chain data also points to softer conviction among long-term holders.
The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or reducing exposure, has started declining after recovering earlier this month. A similar shift in late June coincided with XRP’s move from $1.13 to $1.05, making the metric one to monitor if selling pressure increases.
From a technical perspective, the immediate focus remains on the $1.15-$1.16 resistance zone. A decisive close above that range would complete the cup-and-handle formation and strengthen the case for a move toward $1.18 and $1.21.
On the downside, losing $1.13 would expose support around $1.12 and $1.09, while a break below $1.05 would invalidate the current recovery structure.
Intelligence Assessment
XRP is sending mixed signals.
Price action continues to improve, with buyers defending support and maintaining a constructive chart structure. At the same time, ETF inflows have slowed each month, and long-term holders have started reducing accumulation.
The next move depends on which side gains control. A confirmed breakout above $1.15-$1.16, supported by stronger spot demand and renewed institutional inflows, would strengthen the recovery case. If capital continues to fade while resistance holds, XRP could remain range-bound or revisit lower support levels before attempting another advance.
